With the latest update from the Ministry of Health dating back to December 13, where you can see the classification of regions and autonomous provinces (which occurs through Legislative Decrees or Ordinances of the Minister of Health, based on the data and indications of the Control Room), it seems that we can hope in most regions between white and yellow for the Christmas holidays; hope, however, tied to a thread given that, according to the latest weekly Covid-19 monitoring, report November 29 – December 5, 2021, available on the Ministry of Health website:
“The incidence is growing, 176 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Rt stable at 1.18. The occupancy rate of places in the medical area and in intensive care is 10.6% and 8.5% respectively. The delta variant is still the predominant one in our country, while 26 cases with the omicron variant have been reported. We must continue to maintain prudent behavior and accelerate the vaccination campaign with the booster dose.”
This bulletin also shows that the general increase in the number of new cases of infection refers in particular to people under 20, but also to those in the 30-49 age group. The trend of covid does not look positive at all, even if more and more people are getting vaccinated, many have booked or already had the third dose and the vaccine is also available for the youngest. The pandemic curve continues to rise inexorably because the peak of infections has not yet been reached.
The current colors of the regions
For now they are still dressed in white: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, Molise, PA Trento, Piedmont, Puglia, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany, Umbria, Valle Aosta, Veneto. Instead they are in yellow: Calabria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, PA Bolzano. No region has yet turned the traffic light orange and red. They seem close to moving to yellow: Veneto, Marche and Emilia Romagna, with constantly growing data. The transition from the white to the yellow zone occurs on the basis of three parameters: the weekly incidence of new positives must exceed 50 cases per hundred thousand inhabitants, the occupation rate in the medical area must be over 15%, the occupation rate in intensive care must be over 10%). The biggest difference between the white and yellow zones is that in the yellow zone it is mandatory to wear a mask even outdoors.
Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Marche
Hospital occupancy in the three regions is what is bringing them ever closer to the risk threshold. While a week ago the intensive care and covid wards of Emilia Romagna were at 8%, according to data from Agenas (national agency for regional health services) both are currently at 10% of occupancy, instead the incidence is at 218.22 cases per hundred thousand inhabitants (against 193.02 in the last monitoring) and with a trend that brings the incidence recorded on 3-9 December to 241 cases.
In Veneto, intensive care remains unchanged, still above the limit at 12%, non-critical departments have gone from 9% to 13%, maintaining only two percentage points of margin before thinking about the change of color. The incidence exceeds 300: 350.4 (compared to 285.75 the week before), with a peak of 365.5 on December 3-9. This last figure is among the highest in the entire nation.
The Marche region has a lower incidence, but still above 50 cases: 175.04 (168.64 in the previous monitoring) and with a real-time value (from 3 to 9 December) of 174, the big flaw is hospital occupancy: intensive care units have risen from 10% to 13% in the space of a week, non-critical departments from 10 to 11%.
